Sometimes, when a contract carries a big ol' sticker shock, the entire NHL will just say, "We're actually gonna ignore that. That's not a precedent. Don't ask us about that."

For example, when Drew Doughty became eligible to extend with the Los Angeles Kings on July 1, 2018, he did so with an $11-million AAV over eight years, most of which was in signing bonuses. That was good for 13.5 percent of the salary cap when the deal kicked in for the 2019-20 season. A little less than a year later, on June 17, 2019, Erik Karlsson signed an eight-year extension to stay in San Jose (ha ha ha) that paid him an AAV of $11.5 million, also starting in 2019-20. It made up 14.11 percent of the cap, and was loaded with signing-bonus money, just like Doughty's contract.

The thought at the time was that these numbers would completely reset the market for defensemen. They were the first eight-figure AAVs ever given to blue liners, and no one who had signed in recent years was even close to that number, and sure, they were both elite defenders with a Norris trophy in their back pockets (well, two for Karlsson, but you see the point). They blew past PK Subban's albatross $9-million AAV, a deal that was in year 6 of 8. So that might have felt like ancient history, but when that was signed, it was actually a bit south of the percentages Doughty and Karlsson pulled, at "just" 13.04 percent.

The thing is, though, that the market didn't follow Karlsson and Doughty at all. The next big-ticket defenseman to sign came the very next year: Roman Josi in Nashville. Eight years at $9.059 million per. Then came COVID and the flat cap. Names like Seth Jones, Zach Werenski, Adam Fox, Charlie McAvoy, and Cale Makar all re-signed in the intervening years, and the entire league said that actually they all preferred to keep defensemen in the "less than $10 million" range. It took another five years, when Rasmus Dahlin re-upped in Buffalo — $11-million AAV but just 12.5 percent of the cap — to even match Doughty, and it won't be until Bowen Byram's contract kicks in for 2027-28 (ha ha ha) surpasses those AAVs. And the percentage of the cap still just 11.01 percent.

What felt like the winds of change was just another early-summer breeze that barely got any notice; the league took the entirety of the Doughty/Karlsson contracts to catch up.

And this weekend I was wondering if they might do the same for Leo Carlsson's offer sheet. The Sharks and Kings arguably overpaid their elite defensemen and the entire league said, "That's fine for you, but we're not bound by it." The Connor Bedard contract, I think, might signal basically the same thing.

Because while Philadelphia of course paid a premium to entice Carlsson into signing its offer sheet, you can't really say he's shown he's worth 20 percent more money than Bedard on an individual basis. Bedard has 14 more goals and 62 more points in just 18 more games played at the NHL level (0.93 points per game versus Carlsson's 0.7). Bedard's team sucks and he doesn't have the playoff track record, for obvious reasons, and if that's worth shaving $3 million off his AAV, then fair enough. Same applies to his defensive impact: Carlsson has a ton of help on the ice and behind the bench, Bedard has next to none.

But if there was any player in the league who could point to what he brings to the table, all things considered, and say he deserves Leo Carlsson money, it's Bedard. It's not like Chicago is strapped for cap room — even after that deal, they have $14.3 million in space and only Kevin Korchinski left to sign. Let's just say he's not getting the Byram contract, y'know?

It's only one point of comparison for a big-name RFA coming off his ELC. But the other RFA contracts for young forwards in recent weeks don't move us toward a future where everyone is getting a huge raise (except for Connor McMichael's baffling deal). We'll assuredly get more data in the near future when Adam Fantilli re-ups in Columbus.

Some may also say we'll really find out over the next 12 months, when names like Cale Makar, Nikita Kucherov, and Quinn Hughes are putting pen to paper on new, big-money deals. They will assuredly equal or surpass Carlsson's AAV. Would that be a sign Carlsson did in fact reset the market? Nope.

They all have lengthy NHL careers and lots of accolades to point to. If we're ranking those every season played by those three veterans against Carlsson's career-best 2025-26 campaign, Carlsson's ranks 11th out of 29 in goals (29), and 19th in total points. Compared to the true superstars of this league, two of whom are defensemen, he is a mediocrity in terms of point and goal production. He has never received consideration for a major award (and even for non-major awards, his best season was a 14th-place finish for the Calder.) There is nothing especially exceptional about what he did. We're talking about a completely different class of player. 

And that doesn't even account for the fact that Philadelphia and now Anaheim were buying up nothing but RFA years. UFA years are definitionally more expensive, so of course the AAV for Hughes, Makar, or Kucherov — let alone Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews two years down the line — should be higher. Especially because the cap is going to explode in two summers.

Certainly, we've seen before that guys will take less money to give their teams cap flexibility (maybe you say that's what Bedard did, but again, that doesn't fully track). But another part of that is GMs have to agree to give them those deals. Do we think it's a coincidence that Bedard got the same AAV and term that Carlsson reportedly asked for from Verbeek before signing the Philly offer sheet? I wonder.

The Flyers/Ducks got Carlsson on a deal that should have redefined the era. But there's a real possibility that the other 31 GMs just collectively go, "Nah, not really."

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: Anyway, all of the above is to say I wish Cutter Gauthier the very best of luck with this.

Boston Bruins: Not really sure how you square "sell high on" and "no matter what they get," but sure.

Buffalo Sabres: It's crazy how quickly the rumored Connor Hellebuyck trade started to feel like something that was just going to happen.

Calgary Flames: When you're going "Well they have a lot of rest days" to psyche yourself up for the season, you might as well just move on to 2027-28 now.

Carolina Hurricanes: Lots of stuff you can criticize the NHL for, obviously, but they got the opening-night schedule right: Florida at Carolina for the banner-raising ceremony is just good booking. Every dumb guy on the planet going, "Well of course they won the Cup, because they didn't have to play the Panthers," gets their dream matchup.

Chicago Blackhawks: Just a lot of really good reporting on the Bedard negotiations. Not sure all of the logic makes sense from the agent side, but here it is straight from the source.

Colorado Avalanche: I'm gonna miss 'em. Don't tell me what to do.

Columbus Blue Jackets: I mean they have so much cap space that they basically can't get themselves into a tight squeeze even if Fantilli gets the max which, again, he will not come close to.

Dallas Stars: The streaming situation for the Stars is something I've never figured out (because, as someone who does not live down there, I don't have to) but it does seem like it's getting worse.

Detroit Red Wings: He got scared. It's that simple. There's nothing to even discuss here. He was scared of missing the playoffs four years in a row and, in doing so, ended up pushing it into a decade-long drought. Good job, bozo.

Edmonton Oilers: Oilers fans? Stupid? No way. Come on. No one's buying that.

Florida Panthers: I mean, sure. Yeah.

Los Angeles Kings: This is the kind of thing people seem to really care about, and I just can't imagine why. Guys changed their numbers, who cares.

Minnesota Wild: I think everyone is on the same page here.

Montreal Canadiens: What on earth could "core" mean in this context? Organization? Roster?

Nashville Predators: I guess I haven't really thought about it but I can kinda see what they're saying.

New Jersey Devils: I would imagine that's usually how it works.

New York Islanders: People think the Islanders had a bad offseason? Just because it was bad? That's not fair.

New York Rangers: Is it "the team is bad?"

Ottawa Senators: If this is true, then I don't think the answer is very satisfactory.

Philadelphia Flyers: The second part of this headline is so funny. Like, yeah man, I bet!

Pittsburgh Penguins: Great headline writing, silly premise.

San Jose Sharks: The issue with what the Sharks did on defense isn't the binary, "Is it better," it's "Did they spend money well?" It's marginally better, I guess, and they didn't spend money well at all. And everyone knows that.

Seattle Kraken: Oh shut up. Try building a half-decent hockey team instead of pontificating about how you're personally affected by taxes.

St. Louis Blues: Yeah lots of things could happen.

Tampa Bay Lightning: I don't think so, no.

Toronto Maple Leafs: I'd say it's more about the coach than the personnel, but yeah I don't think this is wrong.

Utah Mammoth: Honestly, great question.

Vancouver Canucks: The reason Steve Yzerman failed in Detroit is the same reason Jim Benning failed in Vancouver. I don't know that you need to learn the lesson twice, but based on how everything went from Benning's departure to this offseason, maybe that's wrong.

Vegas Golden Knights: Yawn.

Washington Capitals: No matter where it happens, I love when someone surprises fans at hockey activations. And when it happens at Fanatics Fest NYC? Oh baby that's the good stuff!!!!!!

Winnipeg Jets: Seeing this crystallized everything for me about the Jets being called the Jets and using the old Jets logo even though the current Jets are the Atlanta Thrashers and shouldn't be called the Jets. I get it now. They're doing Shutter Island for Gen Xers. Maybe when these Jets move away, it'll all make sense for them. I hope it to be true.

Gold Star Award

A solemn vow to my beloved subscribers: I promise you with my whole heart, which I am now crossing and hoping to die, that I was working on this take even before the new Connor Bedard contract was announced. When that news broke — at 4:25 p.m., Eastern time on Saturday — my new theory was confirmed. This is proof positive that the takes come to me in times of need.

Minus of the Weekend

Seeing articles from fan/local sites that are basically wrapping up their teams' offseason on July 15 hurt my tummy. There's still six weeks to September, man. Can we at least hold off on those until Aug. 1? I hate summer!!!!

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week

User "Goatlender" wants a deal that doesn't work for anybody:

Vancouver trades DeBrusk for Edmonton’s 2028 1st (top 10 protected) + Frederic.

Alternatively, DeBrusk + Lankinen for 2028 1st (top 10 protected) + Jarry.